Visible Alpha consensus data for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone models indicate growth of 9% in unit volume and 2% in average selling price (ASP) for FY2018. Compared to the first year of AAPL’s last major iPhone cycle, the unit and ASP growth rates expected are significantly slower. The next generation iPhone major cycle upgrade (iPhone 8) will likely start shipping in early FY2018.
AAPL’s last major iPhone cycle was the iPhone 6/6+ which was announced in September 2014 and started shipping at the start of AAPL’s FY2015. In FY2015, the iPhone 6/6+ shipped approximately 182 million units or nearly 80% of total iPhone units for the year. This drove approximately 37% of total iPhone unit growth for the full year. The higher priced iPhone 6/6+ units (vs. ASPs on previous iPhone models) also drove a higher blended ASP expansion of 10.9% to $672 per unit in AAPL’s FY2015. This was the highest annual ASP increase in the history of all iPhone models.
Source: Visible Alpha. For illustrative purposes only.