On August 29, Match Group began rolling out Tinder Gold, a premium payment tier, to its Tinder users. The company previously offered a Tinder Plus option, which gives users extra features including unlimited swipes, a free monthly advertising boost, and daily Super Likes. For a premium (with pricing dependent on region, demographics, and other user data), Tinder Gold gives users all of these features as well as the ability to see a list of users that have expressed interest in them. Since the feature was rolled out, Tinder has placed consistently within the top 5 top grossing apps on iOS. As a result, the stock has appreciated by over 25% since the rollout, and over 45% since the beginning of the year.
How much have Tinder expectations shifted exactly since the beginning of the year? This would normally be a difficult question to answer as the company does not disclose Tinder financial results. However, Visible Alpha’s platform aggregates sell-side analyst estimates directly from their models, and provides a revision history to see how expectations have changed over time. Our data shows that Tinder’s 2018 revenue estimates have been revised upwards by $91 million, a 25% increase, since the start of the year.
Looking more closely at the drivers of the revenue, we see that analysts have evenly spread that growth over their Tinder Paid Member Count (PMC) estimates and their Tinder Average Revenue per Paying User (ARPPU) estimates. Tinder PMC estimates have been revised upward by 10%, or 260,000 users, as analysts have expected more users to sign up for premium features. Tinder ARPPU has also been revised by 11% since the beginning of the year.